Gameweek 7
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 18:45 | FRO vs SAS | 32.1% | 24.9% | 43.0% | 4-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-17 13:00 | VEN vs NAP | 18.7% | 20.5% | 60.9% | 1-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-17 16:00 | BOL vs INT | 23.6% | 21.8% | 54.6% | 1-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-17 18:45 | ROM vs GEN | 70.6% | 17.1% | 12.3% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 10:30 | UDI vs LEC | 50.6% | 25.7% | 23.7% | 0-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 13:00 | FIO vs COM | 21.2% | 22.4% | 56.4% | 1-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-18 16:00 | MIL vs ATA | 49.0% | 25.8% | 25.2% | 3-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 18:45 | JUV vs LAZ | 49.6% | 24.5% | 25.8% | 0-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-19 16:30 | MON vs CAG | 38.2% | 26.2% | 35.5% | 4-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-19 18:45 | PAR vs TOR | 37.3% | 26.8% | 35.8% | 0-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.