Gameweek 8
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 18:45 | TOR vs MON | 50.6% | 22.2% | 27.2% | 3-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 13:00 | CAG vs BOL | 35.7% | 28.4% | 36.0% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-24 13:00 | COM vs SAS | 62.3% | 19.4% | 18.3% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 16:00 | NAP vs ROM | 36.8% | 25.4% | 37.8% | 3-3 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-24 18:45 | LAZ vs PAR | 59.8% | 23.3% | 16.9% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 11:30 | INT vs FIO | 78.2% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 14:00 | ATA vs FRO | 55.3% | 23.7% | 21.1% | 4-4 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 14:00 | GEN vs VEN | 49.2% | 24.6% | 26.2% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 17:00 | LEC vs JUV | 22.5% | 24.6% | 52.9% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-25 19:45 | UDI vs MIL | 26.1% | 24.3% | 49.6% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.