Gameweek 9
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 17:30 | SAS vs LAZ | 33.4% | 25.4% | 41.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-27 19:45 | ROM vs CAG | 65.5% | 20.0% | 14.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-27 19:45 | TOR vs COM | 26.3% | 23.4% | 50.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-28 17:30 | MIL vs BOL | 53.1% | 24.1% | 22.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-28 17:30 | PAR vs UDI | 37.1% | 27.3% | 35.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-28 17:30 | VEN vs INT | 14.1% | 16.1% | 69.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-28 19:45 | GEN vs JUV | 26.7% | 25.4% | 48.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-28 19:45 | MON vs NAP | 24.1% | 22.3% | 53.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-29 17:30 | FRO vs LEC | 44.7% | 25.8% | 29.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-29 19:45 | FIO vs ATA | 30.5% | 24.1% | 45.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.