Gameweek 10
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 14:00 | BOL vs MON | 55.5% | 22.5% | 22.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 17:00 | UDI vs ROM | 21.9% | 22.1% | 56.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-31 19:45 | MIL vs INT | 33.7% | 23.5% | 42.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-01 11:30 | COM vs VEN | 69.5% | 17.7% | 12.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 14:00 | FRO vs TOR | 39.9% | 24.4% | 35.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 14:00 | LAZ vs CAG | 53.7% | 25.0% | 21.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 17:00 | LEC vs GEN | 39.4% | 27.4% | 33.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 19:45 | JUV vs NAP | 40.7% | 26.0% | 33.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-02 17:30 | SAS vs FIO | 49.1% | 23.5% | 27.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-02 19:45 | ATA vs PAR | 57.7% | 23.3% | 19.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.