Gameweek 11
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-06 19:45 | VEN vs UDI | 34.2% | 25.4% | 40.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 14:00 | CAG vs FRO | 44.7% | 25.8% | 29.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 14:00 | TOR vs LEC | 49.2% | 24.7% | 26.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 17:00 | PAR vs BOL | 30.1% | 27.9% | 42.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 19:45 | ROM vs SAS | 65.8% | 18.8% | 15.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 11:30 | NAP vs LAZ | 47.1% | 25.7% | 27.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 14:00 | GEN vs MIL | 24.6% | 24.4% | 51.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 14:00 | MON vs ATA | 29.3% | 23.1% | 47.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 17:00 | INT vs COM | 53.1% | 22.2% | 24.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 19:45 | FIO vs JUV | 26.6% | 24.4% | 49.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.