Gameweek 11
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-07 00:00 | CAG vs FRO | 50.0% | 25.3% | 24.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 00:00 | FIO vs JUV | 27.7% | 25.1% | 47.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 00:00 | GEN vs MIL | 28.6% | 25.5% | 46.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 00:00 | INT vs COM | 52.6% | 22.8% | 24.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 00:00 | MON vs ATA | 26.6% | 24.4% | 48.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 00:00 | NAP vs LAZ | 52.9% | 24.8% | 22.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 00:00 | PAR vs BOL | 32.9% | 28.0% | 39.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 00:00 | ROM vs SAS | 59.7% | 21.5% | 18.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 00:00 | TOR vs LEC | 43.3% | 26.1% | 30.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 00:00 | VEN vs UDI | 31.6% | 26.1% | 42.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.