Gameweek 12
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-21 14:00 | COM vs CAG | 61.5% | 21.8% | 16.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 14:00 | LAZ vs LEC | 57.9% | 23.6% | 18.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 17:00 | PAR vs ROM | 18.9% | 23.4% | 57.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 19:45 | NAP vs TOR | 60.2% | 21.0% | 18.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-22 11:30 | JUV vs VEN | 65.7% | 19.6% | 14.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-22 14:00 | BOL vs UDI | 50.9% | 24.0% | 25.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-22 14:00 | SAS vs GEN | 48.1% | 24.4% | 27.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-22 17:00 | MIL vs FRO | 63.3% | 20.1% | 16.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-22 19:45 | ATA vs INT | 26.9% | 21.6% | 51.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-23 19:45 | MON vs FIO | 41.9% | 24.3% | 33.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.