Gameweek 12
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-21 00:00 | ATA vs INT | 30.4% | 23.9% | 45.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 00:00 | BOL vs UDI | 45.1% | 25.4% | 29.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 00:00 | COM vs CAG | 59.1% | 22.1% | 18.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 00:00 | JUV vs VEN | 63.2% | 20.8% | 16.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 00:00 | LAZ vs LEC | 49.8% | 26.7% | 23.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 00:00 | MIL vs FRO | 62.8% | 21.0% | 16.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 00:00 | MON vs FIO | 37.7% | 26.1% | 36.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 00:00 | NAP vs TOR | 64.1% | 19.7% | 16.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 00:00 | PAR vs ROM | 23.6% | 25.9% | 50.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 00:00 | SAS vs GEN | 46.6% | 25.1% | 28.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.