Gameweek 13
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-28 00:00 | CAG vs MIL | 29.6% | 25.7% | 44.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 00:00 | COM vs JUV | 44.8% | 25.7% | 29.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 00:00 | FRO vs PAR | 36.2% | 28.9% | 34.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 00:00 | INT vs GEN | 70.8% | 16.7% | 12.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 00:00 | LEC vs ATA | 28.4% | 26.6% | 44.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 00:00 | ROM vs MON | 67.1% | 18.7% | 14.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 00:00 | SAS vs NAP | 29.1% | 24.8% | 46.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 00:00 | TOR vs LAZ | 34.4% | 25.9% | 39.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 00:00 | UDI vs FIO | 48.6% | 24.9% | 26.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 00:00 | VEN vs BOL | 29.7% | 25.7% | 44.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.