Gameweek 13
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-27 19:45 | VEN vs BOL | 27.7% | 25.3% | 47.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 14:00 | FRO vs PAR | 44.4% | 26.8% | 28.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 17:00 | TOR vs LAZ | 32.6% | 25.3% | 42.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 19:45 | INT vs GEN | 75.1% | 14.5% | 10.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 11:30 | UDI vs FIO | 46.0% | 24.3% | 29.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 14:00 | SAS vs NAP | 29.2% | 24.0% | 46.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-29 17:00 | ROM vs MON | 71.4% | 16.2% | 12.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 19:45 | COM vs JUV | 47.3% | 25.4% | 27.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-30 17:30 | LEC vs ATA | 28.3% | 25.1% | 46.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-30 19:45 | CAG vs MIL | 26.2% | 25.4% | 48.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.