Gameweek 14
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-04 19:45 | BOL vs ROM | 27.9% | 25.0% | 47.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-05 14:00 | MON vs COM | 22.5% | 21.8% | 55.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-05 17:00 | FRO vs INT | 17.7% | 18.0% | 64.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-05 19:45 | NAP vs LEC | 63.7% | 20.9% | 15.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 11:30 | GEN vs TOR | 39.3% | 25.3% | 35.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 14:00 | LAZ vs ATA | 44.5% | 25.3% | 30.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 17:00 | JUV vs UDI | 58.9% | 21.8% | 19.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 19:45 | MIL vs PAR | 63.2% | 21.8% | 15.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-07 17:30 | VEN vs SAS | 32.1% | 24.8% | 43.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-07 19:45 | FIO vs CAG | 40.3% | 26.4% | 33.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.