Gameweek 14
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-05 00:00 | BOL vs ROM | 31.2% | 25.4% | 43.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-05 00:00 | FIO vs CAG | 40.9% | 26.1% | 33.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 00:00 | FRO vs INT | 17.1% | 18.9% | 64.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-05 00:00 | GEN vs TOR | 44.8% | 24.8% | 30.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 00:00 | JUV vs UDI | 53.0% | 24.1% | 22.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 00:00 | LAZ vs ATA | 36.6% | 27.1% | 36.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 00:00 | MIL vs PAR | 57.0% | 24.4% | 18.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 00:00 | MON vs COM | 23.5% | 23.0% | 53.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-05 00:00 | NAP vs LEC | 61.5% | 22.1% | 16.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 00:00 | VEN vs SAS | 33.0% | 25.9% | 41.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.