Gameweek 15
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-11 19:45 | UDI vs FRO | 46.0% | 24.2% | 29.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 14:00 | CAG vs VEN | 50.6% | 25.3% | 24.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 17:00 | LEC vs SAS | 35.8% | 25.8% | 38.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-12 19:45 | COM vs BOL | 54.8% | 23.6% | 21.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 11:30 | LAZ vs ROM | 32.0% | 26.1% | 41.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-13 14:00 | INT vs TOR | 73.8% | 14.6% | 11.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 17:00 | PAR vs FIO | 39.0% | 27.5% | 33.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 19:45 | NAP vs MIL | 42.1% | 25.6% | 32.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-14 17:30 | ATA vs GEN | 56.6% | 22.6% | 20.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-14 19:45 | JUV vs MON | 63.2% | 19.9% | 16.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.