Gameweek 15
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-12 00:00 | ATA vs GEN | 55.5% | 23.4% | 21.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 00:00 | CAG vs VEN | 49.9% | 25.2% | 24.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 00:00 | COM vs BOL | 53.2% | 23.7% | 23.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 00:00 | INT vs TOR | 73.8% | 14.8% | 11.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 00:00 | JUV vs MON | 63.1% | 20.6% | 16.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 00:00 | LAZ vs ROM | 30.6% | 26.5% | 42.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-12 00:00 | LEC vs SAS | 36.5% | 27.0% | 36.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-12 00:00 | NAP vs MIL | 45.7% | 25.6% | 28.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 00:00 | PAR vs FIO | 39.9% | 28.2% | 31.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 00:00 | UDI vs FRO | 54.0% | 24.1% | 21.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.