Gameweek 16
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-18 17:30 | FRO vs LAZ | 29.5% | 25.2% | 45.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-18 19:45 | LEC vs INT | 15.7% | 18.4% | 65.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-19 14:00 | SAS vs PAR | 49.7% | 25.4% | 24.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 17:00 | MIL vs COM | 40.7% | 25.9% | 33.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 19:45 | ROM vs JUV | 51.2% | 24.3% | 24.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-20 11:30 | FIO vs BOL | 33.3% | 25.6% | 41.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-20 14:00 | TOR vs CAG | 44.7% | 25.4% | 30.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-20 14:00 | VEN vs MON | 38.6% | 25.1% | 36.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-20 17:00 | GEN vs UDI | 40.8% | 25.6% | 33.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-20 19:45 | ATA vs NAP | 37.0% | 25.0% | 38.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.