Gameweek 16
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-19 00:00 | ATA vs NAP | 37.3% | 26.2% | 36.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 00:00 | FIO vs BOL | 34.9% | 25.9% | 39.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-19 00:00 | FRO vs LAZ | 29.6% | 27.0% | 43.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-19 00:00 | GEN vs UDI | 37.4% | 26.2% | 36.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 00:00 | LEC vs INT | 18.6% | 21.1% | 60.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-19 00:00 | MIL vs COM | 39.9% | 26.1% | 34.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 00:00 | ROM vs JUV | 46.6% | 25.4% | 28.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 00:00 | SAS vs PAR | 46.7% | 26.8% | 26.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 00:00 | TOR vs CAG | 40.6% | 25.2% | 34.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-19 00:00 | VEN vs MON | 41.3% | 26.5% | 32.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.