Gameweek 17
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-02 11:30 | CAG vs GEN | 43.7% | 26.9% | 29.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 14:00 | FIO vs LAZ | 28.9% | 25.4% | 45.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-02 14:00 | TOR vs VEN | 54.4% | 22.9% | 22.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 17:00 | ROM vs FRO | 68.6% | 17.7% | 13.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 19:45 | MON vs MIL | 23.6% | 22.2% | 54.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-03 11:30 | INT vs SAS | 73.0% | 15.0% | 12.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-03 14:00 | COM vs LEC | 65.5% | 20.1% | 14.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-03 14:00 | UDI vs ATA | 32.8% | 24.1% | 43.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-03 17:00 | PAR vs NAP | 22.9% | 25.5% | 51.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-03 19:45 | BOL vs JUV | 35.1% | 26.5% | 38.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.