Gameweek 18
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-05 17:30 | GEN vs MON | 45.4% | 24.7% | 29.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-05 17:30 | VEN vs ROM | 17.2% | 20.0% | 62.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-05 19:45 | MIL vs FIO | 63.9% | 20.0% | 16.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-06 11:30 | JUV vs TOR | 57.6% | 22.0% | 20.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-06 14:00 | FRO vs BOL | 33.7% | 25.5% | 40.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-06 14:00 | LEC vs PAR | 41.0% | 28.9% | 30.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-06 17:00 | ATA vs COM | 34.4% | 25.0% | 40.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-06 19:45 | LAZ vs INT | 28.3% | 23.5% | 48.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-07 17:30 | SAS vs UDI | 46.8% | 23.7% | 29.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-07 19:45 | NAP vs CAG | 59.4% | 22.5% | 18.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.