Gameweek 19
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-09 14:00 | MON vs FRO | 42.1% | 24.2% | 33.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-09 17:00 | ROM vs MIL | 48.7% | 24.6% | 26.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-09 19:45 | BOL vs GEN | 51.9% | 24.7% | 23.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-10 11:30 | COM vs LAZ | 49.6% | 25.3% | 25.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-10 14:00 | FIO vs LEC | 44.7% | 26.0% | 29.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-10 14:00 | PAR vs VEN | 45.0% | 27.5% | 27.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-10 17:00 | TOR vs ATA | 34.5% | 24.0% | 41.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-10 19:45 | INT vs JUV | 58.3% | 21.0% | 20.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-11 17:30 | CAG vs SAS | 40.2% | 25.7% | 34.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-11 19:45 | UDI vs NAP | 26.9% | 23.9% | 49.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.