Gameweek 20
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-16 00:00 | ATA vs ROM | 31.0% | 24.4% | 44.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-16 00:00 | CAG vs COM | 24.9% | 25.1% | 50.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-16 00:00 | JUV vs GEN | 59.6% | 22.4% | 18.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 00:00 | LAZ vs BOL | 46.8% | 26.1% | 27.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 00:00 | LEC vs UDI | 38.1% | 26.3% | 35.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 00:00 | MIL vs TOR | 60.8% | 20.8% | 18.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 00:00 | NAP vs FIO | 63.4% | 20.2% | 16.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 00:00 | PAR vs INT | 15.7% | 19.3% | 64.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-16 00:00 | SAS vs MON | 51.6% | 22.5% | 25.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 00:00 | VEN vs FRO | 36.6% | 25.6% | 37.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.