Gameweek 21
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-23 00:00 | BOL vs ATA | 39.9% | 25.3% | 34.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 00:00 | COM vs NAP | 45.6% | 25.3% | 29.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 00:00 | FIO vs SAS | 38.7% | 24.5% | 36.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 00:00 | FRO vs MIL | 25.2% | 23.4% | 51.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-23 00:00 | GEN vs PAR | 43.7% | 28.0% | 28.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 00:00 | INT vs VEN | 79.3% | 12.0% | 8.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 00:00 | JUV vs CAG | 57.0% | 23.6% | 19.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 00:00 | LEC vs TOR | 36.7% | 25.9% | 37.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-23 00:00 | MON vs LAZ | 27.9% | 24.2% | 47.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-23 00:00 | ROM vs UDI | 67.7% | 18.2% | 14.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.