Gameweek 22
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-30 00:00 | ATA vs FIO | 57.8% | 21.6% | 20.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 00:00 | CAG vs PAR | 45.1% | 28.2% | 26.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 00:00 | GEN vs LEC | 44.1% | 26.9% | 29.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 00:00 | LAZ vs VEN | 62.6% | 21.2% | 16.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 00:00 | MIL vs JUV | 45.3% | 25.6% | 29.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 00:00 | MON vs ROM | 19.6% | 20.2% | 60.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-30 00:00 | NAP vs INT | 32.9% | 23.4% | 43.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-30 00:00 | SAS vs COM | 27.1% | 23.6% | 49.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-30 00:00 | TOR vs FRO | 48.0% | 23.6% | 28.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 00:00 | UDI vs BOL | 35.5% | 25.5% | 39.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.