Gameweek 23
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-06 00:00 | ATA vs LAZ | 41.4% | 25.6% | 33.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-06 00:00 | BOL vs MIL | 32.7% | 26.0% | 41.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-06 00:00 | COM vs MON | 67.4% | 18.1% | 14.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-06 00:00 | FIO vs UDI | 41.2% | 24.8% | 34.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-06 00:00 | INT vs CAG | 72.6% | 15.9% | 11.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-06 00:00 | JUV vs SAS | 56.7% | 22.2% | 21.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-06 00:00 | LEC vs NAP | 23.2% | 24.5% | 52.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-06 00:00 | PAR vs FRO | 39.3% | 27.3% | 33.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-06 00:00 | ROM vs TOR | 66.6% | 18.5% | 14.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-06 00:00 | VEN vs GEN | 35.7% | 26.6% | 37.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.