Gameweek 24
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-13 00:00 | BOL vs COM | 31.1% | 25.9% | 43.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-13 00:00 | CAG vs LAZ | 30.5% | 27.2% | 42.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-13 00:00 | FRO vs FIO | 43.5% | 24.7% | 31.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-13 00:00 | GEN vs ATA | 30.5% | 25.0% | 44.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-13 00:00 | INT vs MIL | 55.7% | 21.5% | 22.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-13 00:00 | MON vs LEC | 43.4% | 25.4% | 31.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-13 00:00 | NAP vs JUV | 44.7% | 25.7% | 29.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-13 00:00 | ROM vs PAR | 68.4% | 19.3% | 12.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-13 00:00 | TOR vs SAS | 43.3% | 23.8% | 33.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-13 00:00 | UDI vs VEN | 52.4% | 23.7% | 23.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.