Gameweek 25
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-20 00:00 | ATA vs MON | 60.2% | 20.3% | 19.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 00:00 | COM vs TOR | 62.4% | 20.2% | 17.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 00:00 | FIO vs INT | 16.6% | 17.8% | 65.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-20 00:00 | JUV vs BOL | 50.0% | 25.0% | 24.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 00:00 | LAZ vs NAP | 37.7% | 26.6% | 35.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 00:00 | LEC vs FRO | 40.4% | 26.2% | 33.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 00:00 | MIL vs GEN | 62.6% | 21.1% | 16.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 00:00 | SAS vs ROM | 23.9% | 22.4% | 53.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-20 00:00 | UDI vs PAR | 46.8% | 26.4% | 26.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-20 00:00 | VEN vs CAG | 33.8% | 27.0% | 39.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.