Gameweek 26
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-27 00:00 | BOL vs LEC | 53.8% | 24.7% | 21.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-27 00:00 | CAG vs UDI | 42.5% | 25.9% | 31.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-27 00:00 | COM vs MIL | 44.8% | 25.5% | 29.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-27 00:00 | FRO vs NAP | 25.7% | 23.5% | 50.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-27 00:00 | GEN vs LAZ | 27.9% | 25.6% | 46.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-27 00:00 | INT vs ATA | 64.4% | 18.4% | 17.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-27 00:00 | MON vs JUV | 25.7% | 23.2% | 51.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-27 00:00 | PAR vs SAS | 36.3% | 26.4% | 37.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-27 00:00 | ROM vs VEN | 73.3% | 15.8% | 10.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-27 00:00 | TOR vs FIO | 48.1% | 23.7% | 28.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.