Gameweek 27
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-06 00:00 | ATA vs TOR | 54.2% | 22.1% | 23.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-06 00:00 | FIO vs VEN | 49.9% | 24.4% | 25.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-06 00:00 | JUV vs ROM | 34.7% | 25.9% | 39.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-06 00:00 | LAZ vs FRO | 58.9% | 21.8% | 19.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-06 00:00 | LEC vs COM | 21.8% | 23.9% | 54.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-06 00:00 | MIL vs CAG | 60.0% | 22.3% | 17.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-06 00:00 | MON vs GEN | 41.3% | 25.1% | 33.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-06 00:00 | NAP vs PAR | 62.6% | 22.0% | 15.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-06 00:00 | SAS vs BOL | 37.2% | 24.7% | 38.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-06 00:00 | UDI vs INT | 18.1% | 18.5% | 63.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.