Gameweek 28
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-13 00:00 | BOL vs NAP | 33.4% | 26.0% | 40.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-13 00:00 | CAG vs FIO | 44.6% | 25.9% | 29.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-13 00:00 | COM vs UDI | 63.5% | 20.0% | 16.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-13 00:00 | FRO vs MON | 45.9% | 23.9% | 30.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-13 00:00 | GEN vs ROM | 20.6% | 22.6% | 56.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-13 00:00 | LAZ vs JUV | 41.0% | 26.3% | 32.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-13 00:00 | MIL vs SAS | 61.8% | 20.1% | 18.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-13 00:00 | PAR vs LEC | 40.1% | 29.0% | 30.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-13 00:00 | TOR vs INT | 19.2% | 18.7% | 62.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-13 00:00 | VEN vs ATA | 25.2% | 23.4% | 51.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.