Gameweek 29
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-20 00:00 | ATA vs MIL | 36.3% | 25.0% | 38.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-20 00:00 | FIO vs GEN | 42.6% | 25.7% | 31.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-20 00:00 | INT vs FRO | 75.3% | 13.9% | 10.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-20 00:00 | JUV vs COM | 38.0% | 26.3% | 35.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-20 00:00 | MON vs BOL | 32.1% | 24.6% | 43.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-20 00:00 | NAP vs VEN | 68.0% | 18.5% | 13.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-20 00:00 | PAR vs LAZ | 25.5% | 26.7% | 47.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-20 00:00 | ROM vs LEC | 70.6% | 17.5% | 11.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-20 00:00 | SAS vs CAG | 45.6% | 24.4% | 30.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-20 00:00 | UDI vs TOR | 42.2% | 24.2% | 33.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.