Gameweek 30
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-03 00:00 | CAG vs NAP | 26.3% | 24.9% | 48.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-03 00:00 | COM vs FIO | 65.4% | 19.4% | 15.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-03 00:00 | FRO vs UDI | 41.3% | 24.7% | 34.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-03 00:00 | GEN vs INT | 17.0% | 18.8% | 64.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-03 00:00 | LEC vs LAZ | 25.9% | 25.7% | 48.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-03 00:00 | MIL vs MON | 66.1% | 18.6% | 15.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-03 00:00 | ROM vs BOL | 60.0% | 21.5% | 18.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-03 00:00 | SAS vs ATA | 34.3% | 23.4% | 42.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-03 00:00 | TOR vs JUV | 30.1% | 24.5% | 45.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-03 00:00 | VEN vs PAR | 37.5% | 28.2% | 34.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.