Gameweek 31
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 00:00 | BOL vs VEN | 58.7% | 22.5% | 18.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-10 00:00 | CAG vs ATA | 31.9% | 25.2% | 42.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-10 00:00 | FIO vs MIL | 24.5% | 23.4% | 52.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-10 00:00 | FRO vs GEN | 42.7% | 25.6% | 31.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-10 00:00 | INT vs ROM | 49.5% | 22.3% | 28.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-10 00:00 | JUV vs LEC | 61.2% | 22.1% | 16.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-10 00:00 | LAZ vs TOR | 56.1% | 22.4% | 21.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-10 00:00 | NAP vs SAS | 61.2% | 20.3% | 18.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-10 00:00 | PAR vs COM | 21.5% | 24.9% | 53.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-10 00:00 | UDI vs MON | 48.6% | 23.3% | 28.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.