Gameweek 32
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-17 00:00 | ATA vs UDI | 55.6% | 22.0% | 22.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 00:00 | BOL vs CAG | 50.4% | 25.1% | 24.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 00:00 | COM vs FRO | 64.6% | 19.5% | 15.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 00:00 | FIO vs PAR | 44.3% | 27.0% | 28.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 00:00 | MIL vs NAP | 43.6% | 25.5% | 30.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 00:00 | MON vs INT | 16.1% | 16.6% | 67.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-17 00:00 | ROM vs LAZ | 53.8% | 23.3% | 22.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 00:00 | SAS vs LEC | 49.4% | 24.2% | 26.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 00:00 | TOR vs GEN | 47.2% | 24.6% | 28.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-17 00:00 | VEN vs JUV | 22.2% | 23.3% | 54.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.