Gameweek 33
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-24 00:00 | CAG vs MON | 47.1% | 24.5% | 28.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-24 00:00 | FRO vs ROM | 20.8% | 21.0% | 58.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-24 00:00 | GEN vs SAS | 40.0% | 24.8% | 35.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-24 00:00 | INT vs BOL | 66.3% | 18.3% | 15.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-24 00:00 | JUV vs FIO | 60.9% | 21.3% | 17.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-24 00:00 | LAZ vs COM | 36.6% | 26.2% | 37.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-24 00:00 | LEC vs MIL | 22.8% | 24.3% | 52.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-24 00:00 | NAP vs UDI | 61.4% | 20.8% | 17.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-24 00:00 | PAR vs ATA | 27.8% | 26.1% | 46.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-24 00:00 | VEN vs TOR | 32.9% | 24.9% | 42.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.