Gameweek 34
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-01 00:00 | ATA vs JUV | 38.8% | 25.3% | 35.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 00:00 | BOL vs FIO | 53.1% | 23.7% | 23.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 00:00 | COM vs INT | 35.9% | 23.8% | 40.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-01 00:00 | LEC vs CAG | 37.9% | 27.4% | 34.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 00:00 | MIL vs LAZ | 46.9% | 25.3% | 27.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 00:00 | MON vs VEN | 48.4% | 24.1% | 27.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 00:00 | ROM vs NAP | 50.5% | 23.8% | 25.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 00:00 | SAS vs FRO | 48.1% | 23.2% | 28.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 00:00 | TOR vs PAR | 48.8% | 25.6% | 25.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-01 00:00 | UDI vs GEN | 45.2% | 25.2% | 29.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.