Gameweek 35
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-08 00:00 | FIO vs ROM | 19.9% | 20.9% | 59.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-08 00:00 | FRO vs ATA | 31.1% | 24.0% | 44.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-08 00:00 | GEN vs CAG | 40.6% | 26.8% | 32.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-08 00:00 | INT vs LEC | 76.4% | 14.1% | 9.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-08 00:00 | LAZ vs SAS | 57.1% | 21.7% | 21.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-08 00:00 | NAP vs MON | 65.6% | 18.8% | 15.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-08 00:00 | PAR vs MIL | 22.5% | 25.4% | 52.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-08 00:00 | TOR vs BOL | 37.3% | 25.2% | 37.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-08 00:00 | UDI vs JUV | 28.6% | 24.6% | 46.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-08 00:00 | VEN vs COM | 19.7% | 21.6% | 58.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.