Gameweek 36
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-15 00:00 | BOL vs FRO | 52.8% | 23.6% | 23.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 00:00 | CAG vs TOR | 41.0% | 25.3% | 33.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 00:00 | COM vs ATA | 52.8% | 23.3% | 23.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 00:00 | JUV vs INT | 30.9% | 23.5% | 45.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-15 00:00 | LAZ vs UDI | 57.4% | 22.3% | 20.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 00:00 | LEC vs FIO | 40.1% | 26.4% | 33.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 00:00 | MIL vs ROM | 37.2% | 25.2% | 37.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-15 00:00 | MON vs PAR | 43.1% | 26.4% | 30.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 00:00 | NAP vs GEN | 62.0% | 21.3% | 16.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 00:00 | SAS vs VEN | 54.7% | 22.5% | 22.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.