Gameweek 37
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-22 00:00 | ATA vs LEC | 58.5% | 22.3% | 19.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-22 00:00 | FIO vs MON | 45.9% | 23.9% | 30.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-22 00:00 | FRO vs CAG | 41.2% | 25.7% | 33.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-22 00:00 | GEN vs BOL | 33.1% | 26.5% | 40.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-22 00:00 | INT vs LAZ | 60.0% | 20.4% | 19.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-22 00:00 | PAR vs JUV | 24.3% | 26.4% | 49.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-22 00:00 | ROM vs COM | 47.3% | 24.5% | 28.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-22 00:00 | TOR vs NAP | 28.3% | 23.8% | 47.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-22 00:00 | UDI vs SAS | 42.9% | 23.7% | 33.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-22 00:00 | VEN vs MIL | 20.5% | 22.1% | 57.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.