Gameweek 38
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-29 00:00 | BOL vs PAR | 53.0% | 25.7% | 21.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-29 00:00 | CAG vs ROM | 21.2% | 22.4% | 56.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-29 00:00 | COM vs GEN | 64.0% | 20.5% | 15.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-29 00:00 | JUV vs FRO | 60.4% | 21.3% | 18.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-29 00:00 | LAZ vs FIO | 59.4% | 21.8% | 18.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-29 00:00 | LEC vs VEN | 46.3% | 26.3% | 27.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-29 00:00 | MIL vs UDI | 62.0% | 20.6% | 17.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-29 00:00 | MON vs TOR | 38.2% | 23.9% | 37.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-29 00:00 | NAP vs ATA | 50.2% | 23.7% | 26.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-29 00:00 | SAS vs INT | 18.7% | 18.1% | 63.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.